|
Kyoto
Emissions Targets for New Zealand
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Latest update: 12th November
2009
|
Please visit again, we are updating this model
based on feedback.
|
|
|
For nearly two years there has been consultations, debates,
arguments about the implications of NZ's response to the fact it ratified the
Kyoto Protocol relating to climate change.
Did any of the signatories understand what they were signing up
to? Probably not.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
We have designed a Target Analyzer to look at the
implications of many different policy and market related scenarios relating
to the Emissions Trading Scheme. However at this early stage, below is a
taste of what you can find out - click on the drop-down menu. The core
definable variables are below:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Greenhouse
gas emissions reductions target - minus
|
|
%.
Emissions Credit price $
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cover
the cost animal emissions through energy
|
|
Unspecified
emissions savings
|
|
m
tonnes CO2e
|
|
|
Unspecified
emissions savings are those that can be achieved with little or no cost by
doing things better.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Select the question you want
an answer to. Click the Start over button to use the variables on the next
page.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The following page has an Impact Summary designed to get a
handle on the the overall costs that would be incurred if the ETS applied to
everything from today. It looks at the
mitigation costs in relation to the benefits from forestry in particular.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There are many people coming up with a range of Greenhouse
Gas emissions reduction suggestions without having a clue as to what they
mean in terms of deliverability or cost.
The Analyzer on the next page can be used to get an indication of what the
full implications are of various user definable scenarios.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The starting point is the target percentage figure below
1990 emissions. The Government has signalled a range of minus 10% to minus
20%. Others are promoting minus
40%. At $40 per tonne for emissions
units, the mitigation costs of the minus 40% option are over $1.4 billion per
year or over $1,060 per household. If
we were going to avoid purchasing emissions units from overseas this would require
planting over 120,000 hectares of new Pinus Radiata forest per year from now
until 2020. The harvest emissions
gross liability for each year's plantings at year 30 would be $3.75 billion
if carbon prices stay constant, a highly unlikely scenario in a free-market
environment.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There are going to be instances where new technologies and
greater efficiencies will result in a reduction of emissions. In the model
there is a column for "Technology Savings". By entering a % figure in one or more of
these cells, the cost of the emissions that have to be mitigated will be
reduced. The model takes no account of
the capital costs involved in the development or implementation of such
technologies.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture is a major issue because methane is deemed to
be 21 times more harmful than carbon dioxide.
(There is talk of this figure increasing to 25 times!) The other
significant emission from farming is Nitrous Oxide which is deemed to be 310
times more harmful than CO2. Burning
the animal methane emissions would reduce the warming factor by 21 times.
Unfortunately, that "technology" is not an option.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The emissions calculations are leveraged from the
Statistics NZ September 2007 (the latest) Energy use report for the previous
12 months. From this the total
emissions are calculated and the mitigation of those emissions costed. The energy/fuel cost increases required to
purchase the mitigation units shown by the model may surprise you!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Because Agriculture is such an important driver in NZ's
economy, there is an option to see the implications of loading the full
mitigation costs onto the energy sector.
Again you may be surprised at the level of those cost increases - 7.6c
per litre for diesel and 6.6c for petrol.
|
|
|
|
|
The other area of interest for Agriculture is whether it
suffers of proportional share of the mitigation burden or benefits from the
fact that its increase in emissions is below the overall average since
1990. This can be factored into the
calculations.
|
|
|
|
|
We then come to the thorny issue of how any mitigation
costs are apportioned. In 1990 sheep
farming was the major emitter. Today
it is the dairy sector. The calculator
can determine the mitigation cost based on 1990, 2005 and current emission
levels.
|
|
|
|
|
Conclusion
|
|
|
The development of this calculator has been complex but
the informaion provided adds some facts to the debate about the costs of
various policy scenarios. Comments
and/or suggestions are welcome.
For anyone wishing to use this on a commercial basis, we will be happy to
discuss a Licence. This model expires
in late September.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
target@valueaddpartners.com
|
|