|
INTRO & TABLE SUMMARY
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NARRATIVE REPORT
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ANALYSIS
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INTRODUCTION
This analysis has been undertaken in support of Morikaunui Incorporation's submission on the climate change Bill currently before the Finance & Expenditure Select Committee.
This page contains a summary report table with the key conclusions highlighted.
The figures shown in red are where inequities for Maori land owners are highlighted. The NARRATIVE REPORT provides some background to the whole Climate Change debate and highlights the main conclusions of this analysis.
All the assumptions shown in the light coloured cells are user-definable.
If any assumptions are changed, the reports automatically update.
Overall analysis assumptions:
CO
2
$
/tonne
Note
:
The official calculations have assumed a price
of
$15/tonne while the current European price is over $50.00.
Proposed carbon credit allocation:
It will be seen from a study of the analysis that the maximum 24,100 owners of forested land are required to
Proposed value expropriation
Maori land
Non-Maori land
Total
Pre-1990 exotic forests
billion
billion
billion
Post-1989 to 1 Jan 2008
billion
billion
billion
Indigenous forests
billion
billion
billion
Total expropriated value
billion
billion
billion
Average contribution from 15,000 private
exotic forest owners
1
Average contribution from 9,100
private indigenous forest owners
Overall average contribution from 24,100 private forest owners
Annual revenue opportunities from existing forests
Post-1989 exotic forests
million
million
million
Expropriated annual revenue opportunities
Pre-1990 exotics from 1/1/08
million
million
million
Indigenous forest
million
million
million
Total expropriated opportunities
million
million
million
NET POSITION
Prepared by The ValueAdd Company for Morikaunui Incorporation
|
INTRO & TABLE SUMMARY
|
NARRATIVE REPORT
|
ANALYSIS
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In a modern western economy you wouldn't expect a Government to put up private assets as security for a State loan, let alone a permanent loan. The current Labour led Government is proposing an equivalent of just that in its Climate Change Bill. It signed up to the Kyoto protocol without ever fully understanding its implications. The Bill before Parliament seeks to effectively requisition private assets to deliver on certain aspects of the protocol. The "assets grab" is unprecedented in a democracy.
The Kyoto protocol assumes that global emissions of Green House Gases (GHG) in 1990 was sustainable in terms of the planet's ability to cope.There are two sides to the Kyoto protocol. On the one hand there are the emissions. This include some industrial processes, energy use, combustion engines, decomposition of organic materials (including composting) and animal farming that emit into the atmosphere either carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide or a handful of other gases. While the basic global warming contributor is deemed to be excess amounts of CO2, the other gases are worse. For example methane exceeds carbon dioxide by a factor of 21 and Nitrous oxide over 300. Collectively these are referred to as carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e).
The delivery by the signatories to the obligations under the Kyoto protocol are in what are defined as "commitment periods". The first KCP is 1/1/2008 to 31/12/2012.
The delivery mechanism of the obligations under the Kyoto protocol are under an Emissions Trading Scheme. The supply side is the carbon credits issued to those sequestering carbon (1 tonne of sequestered carbon is the equivalent of 3.67 tonnes of CO2- the calculation is based on atomic weights) or undertaking carbon dioxide emissions replacement activities. The other side of ETS is those emitting CO2e who need to cover those emission by purchasing carbon credits. [The Bill signals an allocation of carbon credits for emitters but it proposed that these will be phased out by 2025.]
Under Kyoto, sequestered carbon is important because the growth of each tonne of organic carbon (eg trees etc) requires the absorption of 3.67 tonnes of carbon dioxide. In signing up to the protocol, the Government committed privately owned planted forest land as part of its obligation.
In addition to this is the inability for land-owners to get any value from the carbon sequestered in post-1989 exotic trees prior to 1 January 2008. Assuming that the average age of these trees is
1
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INTRO & TABLE SUMMARY
|
NARRATIVE REPORT
|
ANALYSIS
|
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE BILL ON FORESTED LAND OWNERS
Maori and Non-Maori forested land ownership
Exotic forest
Maori
Non-Maori
TOTAL
TOTAL
ha
ha
Indigenous forest
TOTAL
ha
ha
ha
The pre-1990 exotic forest estimate below is based on our interpretation of published data.
Assumptions:
Pre-1990 exotic forest
(est of above total)
Maori land
Non-Maori land
Average age
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
yrs
yrs
yrs
yrs
1
Deemed CO
2
/ha
t/ha
t/ha (
as per draft regulations
)
t/ha
t/ha
Total area
Proposed allocation
Net CO
²
liability
(m t)
m t
Value @
$
Value of pre-1990 CO
2
(
after proposed allocation of carbon credits
)
billion
billion
billion
billion
billion
Total
billion
Annual opportunity Cost
Post-1989 exotic forest
of the total
million
million
Hectares
Total
billion
Average age
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Deemed CO
2
/ha
Total CO
2
(m tonnes)
Value of Post-1989 CO
2
billion
billion
Value of all exotic CO
2
billion
billion
Maori land
Non-Maori land
Indigenous forest
Annual sequestration potential
Average CO
2
/ha
Total sequestered CO
2
m t
m t
m t
Value of indigenous CO
2
billion
billion
billion
million
million
Total devaluation of land or opportunity cost
billion
billion
billion
Total
million
Total opportunity cost
million
million
million
1
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