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Deforestation Calculator
Carbon stocktake
CO
2
e reductions
2020
Impact of tourism
|
Comment
|
Analysis
|
How realistic is the goal of neutrality in New Zealand?
Note:
Elements of this report change when the assumptions on the next page are altered.
The Kyoto protocol is all about pegging green house gas emissions at their 1990 levels in an attempt to reduce the risk of accelerated global warming. However the goal of "carbon neutrality" is being heard more and more but without the benefit of any real analysis as to the likely cost.
The fact of the matter is that NZ has some reasonably high emitting activities.
Agriculture, electricity generation and tourism are the three highest however they are all to the NZ economy. (
Interestingly tourism doesn't feature in any official emission calculations
!)
The only likely significant reductions will come from electricity generation over time.
We estimate (all our assumptions are user-definable on the next page) that getting close to carbon neutrality for NZ would
The reality of any carbon sequestering initiative is that after the trees have been harvested (
in say 28 years for Pinus radiata
) the initial area has to be replanted to cover for the harvested area and new planting of an equal area is required to maintain the carbon neutrality.
Comment welcome:
cneutral@valueaddpartners.com
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© Copyright 2008 -
The ValueAdd Company
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Comment
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Analysis
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Carbon neutrality and the costs of achieving it.
Note:
All the light coloured cells are user-definable.
Introduction
Anyone familiar with work done by the Government agencies will be aware that the figures below differ from the official figures however the total emissions are very close. The electricity and fuel figures have been calculated from the Statistics NZ output figures giving overall emissions rather than sector by sector. If any user has better information, all the assumptions can be changed.
Basic assumptions
Future value $
Average $
yrs
CO
2
price growth
pa
t CO
2
/ ha / yr
Normal rotation
years
(
in real terms ie, after inflation
)
m
Tonnes of CO
2
e (m)
Forest req'd (m ha
CO
2
e value $m
Re-duce
Forest req'd (m ha
Major emissions (2005 estimate)
CO
2
e
m SU*
@
kg
per SU
1
* Stock Units
m Gwhrs @
kg per Gwhr
000 t
@
t per tonne
000 t
@
t per tonne
terajoules @
t / terajoule
**
takes account
of thermal peak (spot-market)
generation
Sub-total - generated within NZ
Not included in the official figures
m visitors @
t per person
TOTALS
Kyoto protocol
- 1990 emissions
(Maximum permitted)
m t CO
2
e
Tonnes of CO
2
e emissions requiring either elimination or sequestration
m hectares
Investment required in exotic forest:
$
/ha
$
/ha
Investment required
billion
Key information for the report below:
Is this report to reflect the goal of carbon neutrality in NZ?
No
Yes
Should this report include inbound tourism emissions?
No
Yes
Note:
These conclusions will vary depending on the user-defined assumptions above.
Those promoting the notion that carbon neutrality is a credible goal should be asked to explain "how?" without crippling the economy..
© Copyright 2008 -
The ValueAdd Company
1
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